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NFL 10 Big Things: Week 11

Here are 10 stories that will impact games across the NFL in Week 11.

Pat Donovan

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Each week, we’ll give you 10 things to keep an eye on during the upcoming games. From one-on-one matchups to players on the mend, we’ll talk about 10 things that could have an impact on your favorite team, or your fantasy team.

1. Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins try to stay in AFC playoff hunt: The AFC playoff picture is quite muddled. The conference has four bad teams, and literally everyone else is still in it. While that’s great news for the conference as a whole, as well as the NFL whose goal is parity, it’s not great news for teams on that bubble. If you’re one of the 10 teams with between four and six wins, there is no room for error. Both the Bills and Dolphins are coming off of losses in Week 10, and desperately need to win their Thursday night battle to stay above .500 and in the AFC playoff picture. Both teams still have to play the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, and Buffalo still has a date with the Green Bay Packers, so Thursday’s game is an elimination game for all practical purposes.

2. Chicago Bears get a break with Bridgewater: The Bears have given up 106 points over the past two games, and many Bears’ fans, would like to ship head coach Marc Trestman back to Canada. Chicago made some strides under Trestman in his first year, but they’ve taken an enormous step backwards in Year 2 under the former CFL coach, and it looks like it could be time to blow the whole thing up. Fortunately for Trestman and the Bears, after dealing with two of the greatest of all time in Tom Brady and Rodgers over the last two games, they’ll get a bit of a reprieve on Sunday when they host the Minnesota Vikings and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The way the Bears defense has looked of late, it wouldn’t be a shock if Bridgewater lit them up as well.

3. Seattle’s big loss: Outside of the Legion of Boom, if you had to point out one thing that made the Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl champs last season, it would have been the play of their defensive line. While the offseason saw the departures of guys like Chris Clemons and the much underrated Red Bryant, the Seahawks defense took another big hit last Sunday when they lost Brandon Mebane for the season to a torn hamstring. While people outside of Seattle may be more familiar with Richard Sherman or even Michael Bennett, Mebane is an integral part of the Seahawks defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Nobody will say that Mebane’s loss will keep the Seahawks out of the playoffs, but expect it to be a huge part of the reason if Seattle don’t repeat as Super Bowl champs.

4. Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints meet in pivotal game: Mathematically, neither the Bengals nor Saints need to win their game Sunday, but don’t tell Marvin Lewis or Sean Payton that. Chances are, these two coaches are telling their teams that this Sunday’s game is a must-win affair, and while mathematics may tell you that’s not the case, a look at the landscape of their divisions and their seasons will tell you it absolutely is. After finally getting back to .500, and back in first place, the Saints dropped a game at home for the first time in 11 games, falling 27-24 to San Francisco last week. With the 3-6-1 Carolina Panthers and 3-6 Atlanta Falcons breathing down their necks, the last thing the Saints want to do is drop to 4-6. As close as things are for the Saints in the NFC South, the AFC North is even more competitive. Unlike the NFC South where nobody is above .500, everyone in the AFC North has a winning record. Cincinnati currently finds themselves in second place by virtue of their tie with Carolina earlier this season. At 5-3-1, the Bengals are just behind the 6-3 Cleveland Browns, and just ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens who are both 6-4. While the two divisions couldn’t be more different, the situation for Cincinnati and New Orleans is exactly the same. They both need to keep winning, and a loss this weekend will put them in a very difficult spot.

5. The 49ers transforming defense: At 5-4, the San Francisco 49ers are in grave danger of missing the playoffs for the first time under head coach Jim Harbaugh after they’ve reached the NFC Championship Game each of the last three seasons.  San Francisco learned on Wednesday that star middle linebacker Patrick Willis would miss the remainder of the season with the toe injury that’s slowed him throughout the year. Chris Borland filled in more than admirably recording 17 tackles, including two for a loss, and recovering the Drew Brees fumble in overtime, which set up the game winning field goal. Borland could be a star in the making, but even then he wouldn’t be Patrick Willis. The news isn’t all bad for the 49ers defense, as this week they will get back Aldon Smith from his nine-game suspension, which should help the team get pressure off the edge. The 49ers are also awaiting the return of their other All-Pro linebacker Navorro Bowman, who the team expects to have back in the coming weeks. San Francisco will have to take a wait and see approach when it comes to their two returning defensive stars, as nobody will know what to expect from two players missing that much time. While Bowman is trying to rebuild himself after injury, the task for Aldon Smith was staying fit while being unable to play.

6. Rashad Jennings effect on the Giants offense: An interesting thing has happened while Rashad Jennings has been away from the Giants. While the running game suffered as Andre Williams and Peyton Hillis couldn’t provide the same burst that Jennings did, the passing game got better. No, this wasn’t a case of addition by subtraction, as Jennings has seemed to be as good of a fit as anyone the Giants signed this offseason. However, while Jennings and the run game were down, Eli Manning was getting more and more comfortable in the West Coast Offense, and the Giants passing attack was opening up. If the Giants can get the same kind of production out of Jennings after his return as they were getting before his injury, the Giants offense could be pretty explosive. Unfortunately for Giants fans, the rash of injuries on defense means it likely won’t matter much.

7. Flying high in Green Bay: Get the women, children and lovers of defensive football out of the room if you’re watching the Green Bay Packers – Philadelphia Eagles game on Sunday. 25 touchdowns and three interceptions would be a fantastic season for a lot of quarterbacks. That’s where Aaron Rodgers finds himself after just nine games, and with a Week 11 match-up against the Eagles on Sunday, he looks ready to keep piling up the stats. The Packers have the 10th ranked passing attack in the NFL, but that number is deceiving. When you consider how often the Packers have shut down the passing attack early after getting out to big leads, it’s obvious that Aaron Rodgers could average much more than the 256 yards the team is averaging through the air each week. While the Eagles don’t have an MVP under center, Mark Sanchez looked very good in his first start for Philadelphia, and it looks like Chip Kelly isn’t afraid to use the entire offensive playbook with Sanchez at quarterback. On the season, the Eagles have the fifth-ranked passing offense, but it might be they might be smart to feature their run game to keep Rodgers off the field Sunday. While Philadelphia is rushing for just over 114 yards per game, and Green Bay has the 30th ranked rushing defense which could provide some holes for LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles. The Eagles offense averages 31 points per game while giving up an average of 22 points per game while the Packers score just below 31 points per game and they give up just above 22 points per contest defensively. One thing is certain when we see these teams meet on Sunday, there will be points.

8. The Detroit Lions – Arizona Cardinals game has huge implications for NFC: The situation for Lions and the Cardinals could not be much more similar. There was a time not all that long ago when the thought of a Cardinals – Lions being considered a huge game was laughable. More recently, the thought of a Cardinals – Lions game being much about the team’s defenses would have been laughable. However, that’s exactly the story line this Sunday when the teams meet in Arizona. This is a huge game, and it’s very much because the Cardinals and Lions have led the way with their defenses. Arizona and Detroit also lead their divisions over teams that most would have predicted to win their divisions in Seattle and Green Bay. If either the Lions or the Cardinals are going to hold on to win their respective divisions, they’re likely going to need to start by winning this weekend in what is a huge game for the NFC.

9. Indianapolis Colts try to break New England Patriots win streak: The New England Patriots are the hottest team in football. Since losing 41-14 to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, the Patriots have defeated everyone in their path, and nobody outside of the Jets (go figure) has even kept the game close. While the Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck commentary is sure to be almost as nauseating as the Brady versus Peyton Manning talk was two weeks ago, just like the Patriots game against Denver, it will be much more about the play of the Colts and Patriots defenses than it will either of the quarterbacks. If the Colts can’t generate any pressure against Brady, expect him to slap them around the way Ben Roethlisberger did when the Pittsburgh Steelers topped the Colts 51-34 in Week 8, which was the Colts only loss since starting the season 0-2. The Patriots defense was the reason the team beat the Broncos two weeks ago, and it will be the reason if the Patriots beat the Colts on Sunday. The Colts have yet to score less than 20 points this season, and there’s no reason to think that will stop Sunday, but Bill Belichick always seems to find a way to throw new wrinkles at the league’s best quarterbacks. Whether or not he can confuse Luck will go a long way in determining if the Colts can cool down the red hot Patriots.

10. Another less than marquee Monday: The prime time schedule this season has been atrocious. Thursday nights, Sunday nights and Monday nights have been littered with blowouts and less than marquee matchups seemingly every week. We’re fortunate that NBC gets to start flexing some of the Sunday night games the rest of the way, because we’ve seen some real stinkers in prime time, and the league needs to start putting their best product out on the national stage before popularity starts dwindling! Ok, that last part was a joke, but we really do need to start seeing some better games in prime time. Be honest, if you’re not a Steelers or Titans fan, will you be watching Monday night?

Pat Donovan has covered the NFL for almost a decade and is a host and producer for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers radio flagship 620WDAE/95.3FM. Pat covers the NFC South and NFC East for Football Insiders. Follow him on Twitter, @PatDonovanNFL.

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