We know that there are numerous coaching changes in the NFL each offseason. Although we don’t know exactly which teams will flop, we do have an idea of which coaches need to be successful to hold on to their jobs.

We will rank which coaches seats are the hottest entering the 2015 season.

Our first volume featured the “safest” coaches for this year and why.

In volume two, we went over the coaches that are likely safe, but not guaranteed.

In this third part, we look at the coaches who are held in high regard, but should still be concerned if the proverbial wheels fall off the wagon.

22. Sean Payton- Sean Payton is the highest paid coach in the NFL, and that alone gives him a certain amount of job security.  With that said, Payton is entering his 10th season in New Orleans and sometimes the message gets lost.  Add in a season-long suspension and the team entering a down cycle and it’s realistic that Payton could lose his job if the Saints falter with another sub-.500 season.

21. Andy Reid- Andy Reid has been solid in Kansas City, but he hasn’t won a playoff game and he’s hitched his proverbial wagon to quarterback Alex Smith, always a sketchy move.  Reid is certainly one of the better coaches in the NFL, but can you win a championship with him?  Can you win a playoff game in Kansas City with him?  The AFC West seems very winnable for the Chiefs and if they struggle this season Reid’s job could certainly be on the line.

20. Mike McCarthy- Mike McCarthy has a Super Bowl title under his resume and that certainly buys him equity.  With that said, he is armed with the best quarterback in the game who is quickly filling his resume toward being one of the best of all-time.  McCarthy hasn’t sniffed a Super Bowl since 2010 and he’s potentially wasting one of the all-time greats career.  If the Packers miss the playoffs, it’s likely that there could be a change.

19. Bill O’Brien- Bill O’Brien has done a nice job in his time in Houston, but they boast the best defensive player in football in J.J. Watt and O’Brien, a quarterback guru, hasn’t found an answer at quarterback yet.  He had a big hand in selecting Jadeveon Clowney over Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater and he passed on Derek Carr twice in the 2014 NFL Draft.  If O’Brien doesn’t make chicken salad out of chicken…you know what with Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer and the team struggles, it’s possible that the Texans coach will pay the ultimate penalty.

   18. Chuck Pagano- The good news: Chuck Pagano has had his team in the playoffs every year.  The bad news: His teams have been dominated by the New England Patriots and Pagano has the very best young quarterback in the game, in one of the worst divisions so more is expected.  Not only is Pagano on the hot seat this season to make a deep playoff run, so is general manager Ryan Grigson.  The Colts spent a lot of money in the offseason and simply winning the AFC South will not be good enough.