Last week was another mediocre performance and our pick confidence is wavering.  We’re already off to a good start, picking the minor Buffalo Bills upset over the New York Jets on Thursday night.  Let’s see if it was a sign of things to come.

Detroit vs. Green Bay

The Packers are coming off two straight losses and they host the league’s worst team.  This looks like a mismatch on paper, but look for the Lions to keep it close for at least a half.  Packers 31, Lions 20. 

Dallas vs. Tampa Bay

Everyone seems to beat the Dallas Cowboys without Tony Romo, and you can make a somewhat legitimate case that Romo is a league MVP candidate.  Dallas has had all sorts of off the field issues this week (what’s new?), but their bigger problem is under center.  Bucs 24, Cowboys 23. 

Carolina vs. Tennessee

If you haven’t already done so, it’s time to start believing in the Panthers.  Carolina finds ways to win close games and they have one of the best defenses in football.  Meanwhile in Nashville, the Titans find themselves in last place, but only a game and a half out of first place in the worst division in football.  This one will be closer than you think.  Panthers 20, Titans 19. 

Chicago vs. St. Louis

Upset special!  The Rams are playing pretty good football this season, but Jay Cutler is better than Nick Foles and John Fox is a better coach than Jeff Fisher.  The Bears are out to prove people wrong.  Bears 24, Rams 17. 

New Orleans vs. Washington

This should be one of the most intriguing games of the day as both teams struggle on defense.  All signs point to a shootout, but the Saints don’t do well in those in outdoor situations.  Redskins 31, Saints 28.

Miami vs. Philadelphia

The Eagles have quietly rescued their season and are in NFC East title contention.  The new car scent of Dan Campbell has worn off and the Dolphins are back to being a nice collection of overpaid pieces.  Eagles 27, Dolphins 19. 

Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh

Johnny Manziel will start against Landry Jones, making this quite possibly the worst matchup of starting quarterbacks in years.  Who knows what will happen with these characters?  Steelers 20, Browns 19?

Jacksonville vs. Baltimore

The Jags have a new lease on life despite their 2-6 record, thanks to the Andrew Luck injury.  The Ravens are playing out the string and shouldn’t be as heavy favorites as they are.  Both teams lose close games consistently, so I’ll take the better coach.  Ravens 24, Jaguars 20.  

Minnesota vs. Oakland

The Vikings are tied for first in the NFC North.  That should change after Sunday, as Oakland is a legitimately solid team and Minnesota can’t score touchdowns.  Raiders 24, Vikings 17. 

New England vs. New York Giants

This isn’t the Super Bowl.  This isn’t four or eight years ago.  This is the only dominant team in the NFL against an up and down, .500 type of squad with the worst pass defense in football.  Patriots 48, Giants 27. 

Kansas City vs. Denver

The Chiefs have a terrible secondary and the Broncos have a quarterback who can’t throw outs.  Something has to give.  Fortunately for Denver, Kansas City can’t beat them, especially at Mile High and the Broncos defense will carry the day again.  Broncos 27, Chiefs 13. 

Arizona vs. Seattle 

I really want to believe in the Cardinals, but all they’ve done is defeated a bunch of bad teams.  The Seahawks need this game to save any chance they have of winning the NFC West.  They’ll get it.  Seahawks 20, Cards 19. 

Houston vs. Cincinnati

The Bengals are the much better team, but doesn’t it feel like they’re due for a letdown?  Andy Dalton has struggled in prime time, and the Texans are a much better team with Brian Hoyer under center.  Near upset special?  Bengals 24, Texans 23.  

Last week: 7-6

Season: 75-57