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NFL Playoffs 5 Big Things: Championship Weekend

Check out five stories that could impact this weekend’s playoff action.

Pat Donovan

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During the NFL’s regular season, we give you 10 big things to look for during that week’s games. Now that the playoffs are here it’s time to narrow are focus to the stories that impact those still vying for a Lombardi Trophy.  Here are five stories that could impact this weekend’s championship round!

1. Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts hoping for better results in rematches of regular season beatings: There is plenty of drama and build up to this weekend’s conference championships, but the Packers and Colts are hoping the drama can last for four quarters after each of them were beaten handily by their upcoming opponents earlier this season. This Sunday’s action will kick off in Seattle, just as the season did when defending champion Seahawks opened up the year with a 36-16 victory over the Packers. Seattle rode the emotion of raising their championship banner that evening to a dominant victory that had many believing the Seahawks were ready to repeat. Despite some struggles earlier this season that made the journey back to the big game seem less and less likely, Seattle is once again at the top of their game as the team gets set to host the Packers Sunday in Seattle. Way back in Week 1, the Seahawks held Aaron Rodgers to just 189 passing yards with just one touchdown and an interception. Rodgers and the Packers will certainly need better results on Sunday if they want to send the 12th man home unhappy. One thing that will be different is the Seahawks’ offensive attack. In their first match-up Seattle was still trying to make it work with Percy Harvin, and Harvin led the team with seven receptions for 59 yards. Harvin also ran the ball four times for 41 yards.

The New England Patriots were seemingly just hitting their stride and were coming off of what many considered a surprising victory over the Denver Broncos when they headed to Indianapolis for a Sunday night battle in Week 11. Andrew Luck did what he always does by throwing for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Colts close as the Patriots dominated the game and the pace by running the ball 37 times for 201 yards with rookie tailback Jonas Gray. On the flip side, the Colts rushing attack was stagnant as Luck led the team with 15 yards rushing on three carries; A stat that clearly needs to change if the Colts are going to have a chance in New England on Sunday. Luck and Rodgers are two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game over the last 20 years, but they’re both going to have to play out of their minds if they hope to head to Arizona for the Super Bowl. The Seahawks and Patriots were undoubtedly the hottest teams in football entering the playoffs, and with conference championship games at home against teams they beat by a large margin earlier this year, both teams have to be feeling very confident about their chances.

2. Overlooked greatness: If you were asked to name the great players on the Seahawks defense, there’s a very good chance you’d start with the Legion of Boom given all the press clippings they get. After all, the secondary does boast one of the league’s fasting rising stars in Richard Sherman, and perhaps the most versatile pair of safeties in the game in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. Of course, everyone knows a secondary is only as good as their pass rush, so once you got done talking about the secondary, you might start bringing up names like Michael Bennett or Cliff Avril. As great as all of those players are, we saw during the middle of this season just how impactful Bobby Wagner is for the Seahawks defense. During his absence, you could tell that something was just a tick off with the Seattle defense. Don’t be disappointed in yourself if you didn’t notice, because even Seahawks coach Pete Carroll admitted he didn’t realize just what Wagner meant Seattle’s defense.

“I went up to Bobby in the locker room and I said, ‘Jeez, I didn’t realize what a factor you are,”’ admitted Carroll after Wagner returned to the team in Week 12 against Arizona. “That was great to have him out there. The players were really excited to be playing with him again. He is one of the heartbeat guys for this club.”

One of the biggest tasks for the Seahawks defense will be slowing down Packer running back Eddie Lacy, who has run the ball well late in the season after getting off to a slow start. That’s a job you’ll often see Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor taking on quite often, and one the Seahawks did well in Week 1 when Lacy was held to just 34 yards on 12 carries. Wagner is one of those rare linebackers who’s very good against the run and does a good job dropping into coverage. It’s not a huge surprise that he’s often overlooked on a defense that makes so many splash plays and has so many characters, but it’s not lost on his teammates that he’s one of the best on the field every Sunday. So when you’re watching the NFC championship game keep an eye on No. 54.

3. Rodgers must recover for Packers to have a shot: Eddie Lacy and the Packers rushing attack has been much more effective as late, but they’re not going to beat the Seahawks Sunday by running the ball. The fact that Rodgers was able to will the Packers to a victory last Sunday against Dallas and throw for 316 yards with three touchdowns and no picks is nothing short of remarkable. The stats say Rodgers had his way with the Cowboys defense, but anyone watching that game could see that Rodgers wasn’t himself. It was clear that the calf injury was still bothering him, and Rodgers just couldn’t be himself. Rodgers’ athleticism and the ability to avoid the rush and make plays outside of the pocket is a huge part of what makes him great, and he couldn’t put any of that athleticism on display with his bum calf. Despite the fact that Rodgers was a sitting duck in the pocket, the Cowboys only managed to bring him down for two sacks, and Rodgers was still able to put up very good numbers and will the Packers to that victory. That’s not going to happen in Seattle. Instead of the near silence the Packers are afforded at home while running offensive plays, the team will need to communicate in one of the loudest buildings in football (I see you Chiefs fans) and will have to deal with a much more ferocious pass rush than the Cowboys could muster. The Seahawks were able to beat a healthy Aaron Rodgers led Packers team by 20 points in the season opener, and it would be hard to imagine them not taking the Packers behind the wood shed a second time if Rodgers can’t find some mobility by Sunday.

4. Look for more of the same from New England: Bill Belichick loves to show you something you’ve never seen before in big games. Last week we saw evidence of that when college quarterback turned NFL receiver Julian Edelman threw a pass for the first time in the NFL, hitting Danny Amendola for a 51 yard touchdown. While Belichick might have a trick or two up his sleeve for the AFC championship game, don’t expect him to change the game plan a lot from what you saw when these teams met in Week 11. As great as Andrew Luck is, the young quarterback is still prone to make mistakes as it seems at times Luck will try to force the issue when the game isn’t going the way he wants it to. One way to frustrate Luck is to keep him off the field with a strong running game; Something the Patriots did in Week 11 when the team ran the ball 44 times for 246 yards in their 42-20 victory. While Luck put up solid numbers that Sunday night, the game never really looked in question. The Patriots were the better team, and everyone on the field knew it. Opening it up to a shootout would be a mistake for New England. Sure, Tom Brady could win a shootout against Andrew Luck, but Belichick knows that Luck could win a shootout just the same. Running the ball, and keeping Luck on the sidelines with hopes of frustrating him enough to force him into a mistake gives New England the best opportunity to dominate the game the way they did back in mid-November. The Colts did a very good job of shutting down the Broncos rushing attack last week, but it was clear early that Peyton Manning wasn’t right, and the Colts were able to focus on the run. They won’t be afforded that luxury this week as Brady is healthy and will pick the Colts apart if the Colts try to stack the box. It will be a different cast of characters than the first time around, but don’t be surprised if Brady is handing the ball off a lot on Sunday afternoon.

5. For Colts to advance, Luck must be amazing: Forget about the passing of a torch. If Indianapolis wants to advance to the Super Bowl, Andrew Luck needs to rip that thing out of Tom Brady’s hand and kick him into a dark hole yelling some stuff about Sparta.  This isn’t going to be a game where both teams play well and the Colts kind of hang around before pulling it off in the end. If Luck doesn’t play his best football, the Patriots will win this game in the same fashion they won the game in Week 11.  While some might suggest that Luck is still young enough that falling short of the Super Bowl again is more than understandable, Luck has to be feeling pressure to get it done. He is clearly a great quarterback, and a guy who’s determined to be one of the greatest of all time. Don’t think for a second that it’s lost on him that another guy from his draft class, who was drafted in the third round, has an opportunity to go to his second straight Super Bowl earlier that afternoon. We all know that Luck isn’t surrounded by nearly as much talent in Indianapolis as Wilson is in Seattle, but that doesn’t matter to Luck. At the end of the day, he believes he should be leading the Colts to championships, and won’t be satisfied until he does. If that’s going to happen, it’s going to have to start Sunday when the Colts travel to New England to take on the Patriots.

Pat Donovan has covered the NFL for almost a decade and is a host and producer for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers radio flagship 620WDAE/95.3FM. Pat covers the NFC South and NFC East for Football Insiders. Follow him on Twitter, @PatDonovanNFL.

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