It isn’t a good time to be a running back in the NFL. The value of the running back has been in a steady decline for the last decade. The league’s leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, wasn’t deemed worthy of a contract worth $8 million a year by his own team, which caused him to make the move to a division rival. Furthermore, a running back hasn’t been drafted in the first round since 2012.

Nevertheless, that trend was almost assuredly supposed to end this year as Todd Gurley was viewed as an elite and special type of talent entering his junior year.

Going into late November, all was well for Gurley’s draft stock, even a four-game suspension for allegedly signing autographs for money could stop his draft stock from soaring. However, that all changed as Gurley fell to the turf writhing in pain against Auburn. Gurley tore his ACL and his draft stock was in peril.

While most prospects would be disappointed and worried about their draft stock, Gurley is just happy that he is going to be in the NFL.

“As long as I have the opportunity I’ll be happy to get drafted as high as possible,” Gurley said. “As long as I get drafted I’ll be fine.”

The real debate team’s will have on Gurley will be whether his injury history is enough to trump his immense talent.

When he is on the field, there are few running backs more physically gifted than Gurley. With over 3,285 rushing yards, 6.4 yards per carry and 42 touchdowns in his career, Gurley has the production to match the talent.

At 6-foot-1 and 222 pounds, Gurley has the look of a powerful back and while he does play with an immense amount of power, he intertwines it with exceptional speed, quickness and vision. Gurley easily locates backside cut back lanes and he has the burst to really stress every level of opposing defenses. Furthermore, he is an extremely aware running back who understands what each situation calls for and how to get the most out of each play.

Nonetheless, Gurley’s torn ACL could render all of those traits moot. Running back is one of the most physically demanding positions in football and running back prospect coming off a non-contact knee injury will certainly scare off some teams.

To Gurley’s credit, Dr. James Andrews (the surgeon who repaired Gurley’s knee) believes that Gurley’s knee has progressed well since the surgery.

“Gurley’s quad muscle is way ahead of what you would expect even at this stage and that’s vital to a good recovery, as you know,” said Andrews. “The Georgia trainer, Ron Courson, did a great job the first six weeks post-surgery and then Todd came here (at he Andrews Institute in Pensacola, FL) and I was very happy before he left for Indianapolis He’s been running on a treadmill, running underwater, he’s never had any swelling and these teams will get to see just how much more progress he will continue to make before the draft (April 30-May 2).”

While it isn’t abnormal for players to return from torn ACL’s, the risk of the player re-injuring his ACL increases by 15 percent in the next 24 months.

The key date for Gurley at this point is April 18th, which is when Gurley will get his medical recheck and teams will be able to see just how much progress his knee has made in the time since the NFL combine.

On the field, Gurley is a top-10 talent; however, his knee makes his projection a little bit murkier.

However, we have seen players coming off a significant knee injury get drafted in the first round before. The New England Patriots drafted Dominque Easley in this first round last year, despite tearing both of his ACL’s while at Florida. Going back a few years, Willis McGahee was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the first round, even though he tore his ACL, PCL and MCL.

Both of those players were selected in the first round and both had significantly worse injuries than Gurley.

The fact of the matter is that Gurley’s talent outweighs his medical injury and some team in the latter half of the first round will get an elite talent without investing a ton of capital.

It may not be a good time to be a running back in the NFL, but it is a good time to need a running back going into this year’s NFL draft.