“Potential will get you fired.”

This is a common phrase in the sports world and it helps illustrate an interesting dichotomy in evaluating talent for the NFL. How much does potential or upside factor into an evaluation? What grade do you give a player that clearly flashes the potential to be great, but also demonstrates the type of unrefined skills that will limit his ability to contribute in the NFL?

It is extremely difficult to assess how much a player will develop once he hits the pros. Will he work at and hone his craft and eventually realize his potential or will get satisfied at making it to the big leagues and leave his potential untapped?

Much of it requires educated guesses as no one has developed a fool-proof plan (to my knowledge) as to how to accurately predict how much a player will improve in the NFL. This is a reason why the NFL draft is so difficult, you have to combine hundreds of factors, from the acute to the obtuse, to determine the value of a player and much of it comes down to discretion.

This process has led to teams selecting players who bust like Aaron Maybin or players who succeed like Justin Houston.

One high upside player that cause teams to once again answer the above questions is Virginia outside linebacker and defensive end Max Valles.

When you look at the 19-year-old defender you see a player brimming with potential. At 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds with long vines for arms, he has the frame that coaches covet. While he likely wouldn’t be able to survive on the edge as his frame stands today, he has the type of body that can be molded into whatever the coaches want.

On the field, Valles is a player who displays the inexperience that will render him useless, but also flashes of brilliance that showcases how great of a player he can be.

The biggest area where you will notice Valles’ inexperience is when he rushes the passer. It is easy to notice that he does not understand the technical nuances of beating an offensive lineman in the most efficient way, so that he can get to the quarterback.

This is a great example:

Valles is lined up as the standup defensive end outside of Louisville’s right tackle. After the snap, Valles does a good job of selling the upfield stem of his pass rush, which causes the right tackle to overset with his kick slide and put all his weight on his outside foot.

A polished pass-rusher would take advantage of the tackle’s mistake and beat him with a quick or violent inside move. Valles makes an attempt to do that very thing, but his lack of technique causes him to fail.

Notice that when Valles plants his left foot in the ground and tries to redirect inside and beat the tackle with a swim move, his pad level rises, which exposes his chest and gives the tackle a huge target. Valles only compounds the problem as he performs a short hop as he tries to swim, which eliminates any opportunity Valles has to successfully absorb the punch and maintain his route to the quarterback.

Another area where Valles’ inexperience and lack of polish rears its head is when he is trying to get off blocks. Valles has not shown the ability to consistently shed or disengage from blockers when rushing the passer or defending the run, which has limited his production significantly.

Like on this play:

Valles is lined up as the left outside linebacker in Virginia’s 3-4 defense. After the snap, Valles gets one yard into the backfield and engages the tight end at the point of attack. He is in perfect position to stack and shed the tight end and make the tackle for little to no gain.

Valles gets great hand positioning on the tight end, but fails to create separation by extending his arms. This allows the tight end to maintain his block and allow the running back to cut off him and get a big gain. To his credit, he did effectively set the edge, but when you are in that good of a position you have to make that tackle.

These are the type of plays that you can’t let happen in the NFL. He did all the legwork to get in great position to make a play, but he lacked the experience or knowledge of how to actually finish it.

Just when you think you’ve seen enough of the type of plays like above, Valles flashes the freakish ability that will cause many evaluators to fall in love with him.

This play is a great example of that:

Valles lines up as the left outside linebacker to the outside of Miami’s tight end. After the snap, Valles burst off the ball and meets the pulling guard three yards in the backfield. Valles accelerates just a tad bit more to get to the guard’s outside shoulder, so that he start to stem back to the quarterback. Valles is able to drop his hips, stick his foot in the ground and sharpen his angle to the quarterback and get the sack.

The balance, burst and flexibility that Valles demonstrates on this play are truly amazing. The way he is able to kick it into an extra gear to beat the guard and the flexibility in his ankles and hips to get around the edge gives a glimpse to the type of potential that Valles is working with.

If there is one area where Valles consistently excels, it is his ability to affect passing lanes, whether it be in coverage or by getting his hands up when rushing the passer.

As a former safety in high school, Valles shows unique coverage ability for a 3-4 outside linebacker. He has the fluidity in his hips and the speed to turn and run with tight ends along with the instincts and eyes to play effectively in zone.

When he isn’t in coverage, Valles still affects passes, but not as a pass-rusher. He has the J.J. Watt-esque ability to deflect passes at the line of scrimmage.

Here is one example of Valles affecting passing lanes:

Valles, lined up as the standup left defensive end, doesn’t get a very good jump on the snap, which causes him to be late coming off the ball. He realizes that he doesn’t have a shot at getting to the quarterback, so his eyes quickly lock onto the quarterback as he scans for a receiver to throw to. As he tries to throw to his outside receiver running a comeback route, Valles leaps into the air and stretches out his right arm and deflects the ball.

This is another example of the type of talent that Valles has as he makes the whole sequence look easy when it definitely isn’t.

Valles is at the stage of his development where he can play a number of positions for a variety of schemes. He can gain some weight and be an every down defensive end in a 4-3 or he can become a 3-4 outside linebacker. He can even be moved to inside linebacker much in the same way as New England did with Jamie Collins.

No matter what position he plays, if Valles can ever integrate his incredible athletic ability and physical traits with comprehension and utilization of nuanced technique, you have a player who can have an All-Pro type of impact.

While potential can certainly get you fired, it can also get you acclaim and the selection of Valles will get someone closer to one of those. Which one? It’s anyone’s guess, but for the sake of scouts, general managers and coaches, let’s hope it’s the right one.

Grade: 3rd Round

Games Watched: Virginia Tech (2014), Miami (2014), Louisville (2014), BYU (2014), UCLA (2014) and Pittsburgh (2014).