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Inside the Miami Dolphins’ Decision to Lock Up Ryan Tannehill

The price is right on Ryan Tannehill’s new deal with the Dolphins. But what about the timing?

Michael Lombardo

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The drought is finally over in Miami! The Dolphins signed QB Ryan Tannehill to an extension on Monday that will keep him in South Beach through the 2020 season. The deal is worth $96 million and includes $45 million in guarantees, according to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.

By committing to Tannehill, the Dolphins are showing the world they believe they have their first true franchise quarterback since Dan Marino left town after the 1999 season.

“We are thrilled that we were able to sign Ryan to an extension,” Dolphins VP Mike Tannenbaum said. “He is an ascending talent, a team leader and checks all of the boxes you are looking for at the position.”

Tannehill put up franchise QB numbers last season. He set career-highs with 4,045 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and a 92.8 passer rating. He also threw a career-low 12 interceptions while completing 66.4 percent of his passes, topping his previous best completion percentage by a full six percent.

Much of the credit for Tannehill’s masterful season went to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who was a member of Chip Kelly’s staff in Philadelphia in 2013 before joining the Dolphins prior to last season. Lazor has learned from some legendary NFL coaches, including Dan Reeves, Joe Gibbs and Mike Holmgren.

Lazor, who played quarterback at Cornell, still sees the game through the eyes of a quarterback. The hope is that his second year with the Dolphins will produce even better results than the first, as Tannehill gets more comfortable in his system.

Miami is not paying Tannehill for the quarterback he is now — one who, despite impressive numbers, has never led his team to the playoffs. The Dolphins are paying for the quarterback they believe Tannehill is destined to become based off his consistent growth over the last three seasons and his success under Lazor.

“Signing Ryan to this deal is important to our franchise,” Dolphins GM Dennis Hickey said. “He is a proven quarterback in this league that combines a talented skill set with work ethic, passion, toughness and a team-first mentality.”

There is risk in banking on Tannehill’s continued ascension. Although he is now comfortable with his play-caller, he still must get comfortable with a completely remade receiving corps. Gone are Mike Wallace, Brandon Gibson, Brian Hartline and Charles Clay; in are DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron. The only receiver Tannehill has established chemistry with is Jarvis Landry, the LSU product who caught 84 balls as a rookie last year.

Tannehill’s new arsenal of weapons appears even more dangerous than his last group, but there are certainly some questions. Is Stills a rising star or merely a product of New Orleans’ wide-open passing system (think Robert Meachem)? Is Parker prepared to make a seamless transition from Louisville to the NFL? Does Jennings, who turns 32 early next season, have anything left in the tank? And can Cameron recapture his dominant form from 2013?

There’s a lot of potential in that assembly, but the sheer number of questions makes it fair to worry if that group will prevent Tannehill from realizing his full potential.

And what is Tannehill’s ceiling, exactly? The Dolphins believe he is a Top 10 quarterback, but that term is thrown around too much in today’s NFL. The unofficial list of quarterbacks that still rank ahead of Tannehill includes Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo. That’s 12 teams who feel better about their quarterback situation than Miami in a league where only 12 teams make the playoffs.

And before Dolphins fans complain that Tannehill should rank above some of those players, know that fans in Carolina, Minnesota and Oakland will tell you they would not trade their quarterbacks for Tannehill. Fans in Tampa Bay and Tennessee might say the same thing, too, depending on how they feel about their new franchise QBs.

Does that mean the Dolphins overpaid for Tannehill? Not at all. In a league where Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick can both land extensions worth in excess of $100 million (although with fewer guarantees), getting Tannehill for $96 million is a damn-near steal.

There is no nitpicking the price tag, but the timing of Tannehill’s extension leaves the Dolphins open to some scrutiny. The team had already exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, meaning Miami had him under contract for two more seasons (and potentially another two after that, thanks to the franchise tag).

Why not let Tannehill play out the season to see if he can carry the Dolphins into the playoffs? To see if he can help Miami avoid a late-season meltdown like the ones that submarined the team’s playoff hopes in 2013 and 2014?

The Dolphins are built to win now after a free-agent spending spree that netted the top player on the market, DT Ndamukong Suh. And the AFC East is wide open, as the Patriots will open the season without their starting quarterback, while the Bills and Jets still have no idea who they will put under center on Opening Day.

The division is there for the taking. Perhaps the Dolphins should have waited for Tannehill to prove he can step up and seize the opportunity before tying themselves to the former Texas A&M star for the next half decade.

This is a big season for the Dolphins, who have not been to the playoffs since the 2008 season and have not won a playoff game since the tournament of 2000. If those streaks do not come to an end this year, it will likely cost head coach Joe Philbin his job. That could trigger some sweeping changes throughout an organization that has grown tired of its prolonged mediocrity.

By locking up Tannehill now, Dolphins management is sending the message those potential changes will not impact No. 17.

“We are committed and believe in Ryan as our quarterback for the long term and we are excited to be able to sign him to this extension,” Hickey said.

That kind of organizational support can be huge to a quarterback’s development. Maybe Miami’s Week 1 opponent, the Washington Redskins, will take note of that valuable lesson.

Want to talk more about Tannehill’s new deal with the Dolphins? Join Michael Lombardo for his weekly NFL Chat on Friday at 2pm EST. But you don’t have to wait until then … you can ask your question now

Michael Lombardo has spent more than 10 years as a team expert at Scout.com, primarily covering the Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. He has been published by the NFL Network, Fox Sports and other venues.

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