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Burning Questions for Every AFC Contender

We examine the burning questions that could undermine the contender status of five AFC powerhouses.

Michael Lombardo

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The playoff race in the AFC is as crazy at it has ever been. There are 11 teams with winning records, all of whom consider themselves contenders. For the sake of this examination, we will restrict our list of “contenders” to the five teams with at least twice as many wins as losses: the Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Broncos and Steelers.

Here is a look at each of those squads, along with a burning question that could undermine their status as contenders.

New England Patriots (7-2)

New England’s resiliency is impressive. The Patriots have won five in a row since getting throttled by the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 4. That win streak includes victories over the Bengals and Broncos, two other strong contenders, by a combined score of 86-38.

The biggest concern for the Patriots is the toll injuries are taking on their team. Jerod Mayo is on injured-reserve after tearing his patellar tendon in Week 6, while Chandler Jones is out at least a few more weeks with a hip injury. Those are tough losses for a defense that ranks No. 23 against the run.

New England’s offense must do its part by running the ball more efficiently, which will result in less time on the field for a depleted defense. The Patriots average just 3.6 yards per carry, the sixth-worst average in the league. The loss of Stevan Ridley, who tore his ACL and MCL in Week 6, has made that task more difficult.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

The Bengals have won two in a row to stay on top of the most competitive division in football. Cincinnati’s season sweep of the Ravens all but relegates Baltimore to the wild-card race; a win over the Browns this week on Thursday Night Football could do the same thing to the upstarts from Cleveland.

“This is a football team and we’ve got to win all three phases all of the time,” said Bengals coach Marvin Lewis. “We’ve got to take advantage of the things that we have. Our guys, they’re obviously well coached, and we’ve got to keep at it, and keep grinding at it, and execute our plan each and every Sunday out there, and in this case Thursday night.”

The biggest worry for Lewis’ squad is its inability to hold up against top competition. Cincinnati was blown out in its only two games against AFC contenders: a 43-17 loss to the Patriots and a 27-0 loss to the Colts. The Bengals have a reputation for shrinking under the spotlight, thanks to three consecutive one-and-done playoff appearances, and need to show they can thrive under pressure.

A Week 16 game on Monday Night Football against the Broncos will provide a good opportunity for the Bengals to make a statement about their legitimacy before the playoffs begin.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

The Colts have won five out of six games since their 0-2 start. They get to enjoy their bye this week, then come back and play three straight games at home. It also helps that Indianapolis plays in the least competitive division in football, which gives the Colts a cakewalk to at least one home game in the postseason.

The biggest question here is whether the Colts can be consistent enough to string together three or four wins in the playoffs. Andrew Luck, who is a leading contender to win his first MVP award, still has a tendency to start games slowly.

The Colts defense runs hot and cold, too, shutting out the Bengals in Week 7 and then giving up 51 points to the Steelers in Week 8. The Indy defense allows an average of 7.5 yards per play, which ranks in the bottom third of the league.

Denver Broncos (6-2)

The big story in Denver this offseason was all the upgrades the team made to its defense. The Broncos brought in Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware and T.J. Ward to shore up a unit that was exposed in the playoffs. So far, the results have been mixed.

The Broncos rank No. 7 in total defense, seven spots higher than last season. But the defense has wilted in big moments against other contenders. In Denver’s first loss of the season, the Seahawks marched right down the field in overtime to score the game-winning touchdown without Peyton Manning and the Denver offense ever seeing the field.

Last Sunday, in a game that could determine the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Denver defense allowed a season-worst 43 points. Prior to that, no opponent had broken the 30-point plateau against the Broncos.

“We’ve got to be better on the road,” Manning said. “What are we, 1-2 on the road? And we probably didn’t play our best out there in New York, so we’ve got to play better on the road.”

There is no doubt Denver will march into the playoffs as a high seed and likely favorite. But the defense needs to prove it can slow down top-tier competition if Manning is to get that elusive second Super Bowl ring.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

The Steelers are another team that has shown great resiliency. After enduring a 31-10 whooping at the hands of the Browns, the Steelers have reeled off three straight wins, including emphatic victories over the Colts and Ravens. Pittsburgh has two very winnable games coming up against the Jets (1-8) and Titans (2-6), which gives the Steelers a great chance to get to 8-3 heading into the final month of the season.

The question about the Steelers, who have already been upset by the Browns and Buccaneers, is how they will navigate an unbalanced schedule. Pittsburgh has an unusual closing schedule, with its most challenging games at home and the easier ones on the road (save for a road game versus the Bengals).

The Steelers will play four of their next five on the road, although only a Week 14 trip to Cincinnati comes against a team with more than two wins under its belt. Pittsburgh then comes home to host its final two games, although the Chiefs and Bengals will both provide serious tests.

The two matchups with the Bengals will likely make or break the Steelers season. Win them both and the Steelers could capture the division. Split them and a wild-card spot is still a strong possibility. Lose them both and Pittsburgh could fall out of the playoffs altogether.

Michael Lombardo has spent more than 10 years as a team expert at Scout.com, primarily covering the Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. He has been published by the NFL Network, Fox Sports and other venues.

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