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5 Most Important AFC South Decisions

Find out what the most important off-season decisions are in the AFC South.

Mark Gunnels

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The AFC South has been anything but stellar over the past couple of seasons. The Indianapolis Colts have gone 11-5 each of the past two years, while the rest of the division has a dismal record of 17-39.

What separates Indianapolis from the other three teams is quarterback play. Andrew Luck has made the Pro-Bowl each of his first three NFL seasons, while the other quarterbacks in the division are just trying to maintain a job from week-to-week.

With the off-season officially here, lets take a look at the most important decisions in the AFC South.

Can’t just depend on Luck: Just making the playoffs will no longer be acceptable for Indianapolis. Yeah, it’s great to win your division two years straight, while reaching the postseason three years in a row, but when will you take that next step?

T.Y. Hilton showed signs of becoming an elite receiver this past season, as he caught 82 passes for 1, 345 yards with seven touchdowns. However, he was the only consistent offensive threat, making Indianapolis very one dimensional.

The Colts rushing attack was non-existent. Former first round pick Trent Richardson led the team in rushing with only 519 yards on 3.3 yards per carry. To put that into perspective, Luck rushed for over half of that with 273 yards, while tying Richardson for most rushing touchdowns on the season with three.

Wide receiver Dwayne Allen realizes the team can’t just rely on Luck’s arm all the time.

“Andrew can throw the football, he can dissect defenses and get us into the best play possible,” Allen said. “We rode his arm a lot of the season through victories. I feel as if whenever you are dealing with those top-four, top-five teams and you are competing against those teams who are able to run the football and stop the run, you have to be multi-dimensional. You can’t go into those games thinking you can out throw them and come out of there with a victory.”

With Andrew Luck entering the final year of his rookie contract, the time to build around him is now. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Colts took a serious look at DeMarco Murray.

Quarterback away?: Despite using four different quarterbacks, the Houston Texans managed to finish with a record of 9-7. Most of the credit goes to their vaunted defense.

Houston only allowed 19.2 points a game, which ranked 7th in the league. Their run defense finished 10th, allowing just a little over 100 yards per contest.

Oh yeah, that J.J. Watt guy was pretty good, as he gathered 78 tackles to go along with 20.5 sacks. However, if Houston wants to take the next step, they must figure out who’s going to be their signal caller.

Head coach Bill O’Brien knows exactly what he wants in a quarterback.

“Hard worker, leadership, intelligence, being able to throw the ball accurately in critical situations (and) having his best moments when the game’s on the line,” O’Brien said Monday. “Those are the qualities I look for.”

The question that remains is that sought after quarterback in Houston now or somewhere else?

“I thought all of those guys showed those qualities at times,” O’Brien said.  “They bought into what we were teaching, worked very hard, showed leadership skills and were fun guys to coach.”

Ryan Fitzpatrick received majority of the snaps and while he played solid, the 32-year old clearly isn’t the long-term solution. Case Keenum and Ryan Mallett both played about the same amount of time, while producing similar numbers.

Houston traded for Mallett in hopes of him becoming that guy, but he suffered a pectoral injury, which ended his season. He’s a unrestricted free agent, but he doesn’t want to go anywhere.

I like it here. I love the system,” Mallett said.

Since Houston is picking 16th overall in the draft, they won’t be able to snatch up Jameis Winson or Marcus Mariota. And you’re not going to find a franchise guy in free-agency, so their best bet may be to just stick with what they have and build around them.

Offensive shuffle: The Jacksonville Jaguars finished dead last in points, second to last in passing offense and total offense. While those statistics are alarming, it should come as no surprise. Jacksonville started rookie quarterback, Blake Bortles, who was handing the ball off to second year running back Denard Robinson and throwing the ball to a receiving core which featured three rookies.

Although the unit will be more mature next season, its still going to feel like year one, since they fired offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch.

Head coach Gus Bradley wants Bortles to be groomed his way.

“I just think we want to help him get better every day and not overwhelmed,” Bradley said. “I think you know my philosophy enough of be careful of how much you put on a guy to create a lot of anxiety that might keep him from being his best.”

Well, in order for Bortles to be the best he can be, Jacksonville needs to keep him upright. He was sacked a league-high 55 times. But don’t expect a major overhaul to the offensive line, as the expected starting group of Luke Joeckel, Zane Beadles, Luke Bowanko, Brandon Linder and Austin Pasztor only played seven games together.

At the same time, expect Jacksonville to address the wide receiver position, especially with the uncertainty of Justin Blackmon’s future.

Randall Cobb is a realistic possibility

Time to get defensive: The Tennessee Titans picked an interesting year to have a top two pick. Of course, everyone is drooling over Jameis Winston and Marcis Mariota, but Tennessee was impressed with rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger.

Playmaker Dexter McCluster liked what he saw from Mettenberger.

“He is definitely going to be a great quarterback,” McCluster said. “I think he handled himself the right way. He showed a lot of glimpses that he can be ‘that guy’. It is up to him this offseason to put in the work and stay close with his guys and take on that roll. … But I know this whole team believes in him.”

It will probably be in the Titans best interest to trade their number two pick because some team desperate for a quarterback will give up a lot.

Tennessee will have about $30 million in cap space and boy do they need it.

While the offense needs to improve, the other side of the ball is a bigger concern. Tennessee allowed 27. 4 points per game (29th), 373 yards per game (27th) and 137. 2 rushing yards per game, which ranked only ahead of Cleveland.

Look at guys like Brian Orakpo and Jason Worlds to be potential targets to help the Titans run defense and pass rush.

Run D in Indy: We already know about the Colts inept running attack, but they have a difficult time slowing down opponents rushing attacks. Indianapolis finished 18th in rushing yards allowed per game, at 113.4.

The lack of run defense became evident when the Colts were shredded by LaGarrette Blount in the playoffs. He rushed for 148 yards on 30 carries.

Pass rush was also a major problem, as their sack leader, Jonathan Newsome, only obtained 6.5 sacks. A major part of that was the absence of Robert Mathis, who had 19.5 sacks in 2013.

Mathis will surely help with his return in 2015, but the team will look to add some depth in the draft and free agency.

Indianapolis will still be the clear favorite to win the division for the third straight season, but Houston will be looking to close the gap, while Jacksonville and Tennessee are just hoping to build some momentum for the future.

 

 

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Mark Gunnels is an NFL columnist for Football Insiders. He has several years of experience covering the NFL and NCAA football. He's the radio color commentator for Lincoln University football. Mark's work has been featured on Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports and Yard Barker.

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